October 14, 2022. As then-Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng flew back to London from an IMF meeting in Washington, his phone buzzed with startling news: The Times of London reported he had been fired, just 38 days into the job. Kwarteng was the first casualty of the furor unleashed by his own mini-budget.
Released on September 23, that plan promised the largest tax cuts in 50 years, slashing rates on income, dividends, home purchases and corporate profits. Billed as a "new era" for Britain's economy, it instead sparked turmoil. The pound crashed to a record low against the dollar, borrowing costs soared, and mortgage offers vanished as the Bank of England made an emergency move to prop up the bond market.
Nearly two years later, Kwarteng revisits those chaotic events and their fallout with a mix of hindsight, defiance and lingering disbelief.
"What happened with Liz [Truss] and myself was a big part of the defeat, but it wasn't the only ingredient," he said to Jon Sopel of The News Agents, referencing the walloping the Tories later took in a general election under Rishi Sunak. Many blame that rout squarely on the unforced errors of Truss's 44-day tenure, especially the mini-budget fiasco.
But Kwarteng remains loyal to their vision's core principles. "I don't believe that, because if you look at the economic growth figures in Europe, they're not much better than ours," he argued. Though "lots was promised," he blamed the backlash more on jitters over Brexit and global headwinds than inherent issues with the plan.
However, he conceded stumbles, particularly in the mini-budget's rollout. "I've said publicly, the campaign that we fought two months ago was one of the worst we've ever fought," Kwarteng acknowledged.
He aimed special criticism at Sunak for calling a snap election when "the party was in a terrible state," lacking a Tory candidate in numerous races. "How can you call a surprising election where your party is more less prepared than the opposition?" Kwarteng asked incredulously.
But it was his abrupt dismissal, and Truss's ouster less than a week later, that shattered their ambitious agenda with head-spinning speed. Recounting his unceremonious sacking, Kwarteng depicted a prime minister in denial about her own fate.
"I was totally dried," Kwarteng recalled of his final meeting with Truss. "I think she was very emotional, you know, there were tears. And she said, 'Oh, I've got to do this, this is necessary.' And I remember thinking this is insane, because you doing this will accelerate the end of your premiership, not delay it."
To Kwarteng, Truss sealed her demise the instant she showed him the door. "I've said this – if you're going to throw someone under the bus, it doesn't make sense if you're going to be run over by the next bus," he remarked ruefully.
Those dramatic turns, and the electoral drubbing that followed, have the Tories soul-searching over their future path. With flagging poll numbers, they're torn between tacking hard right to stop defections to Nigel Farage's upstart Reform UK party, or shifting to the center to assemble a broader voter coalition.
Kwarteng advocates a double-barreled approach: first "consolidate your base" as Reform UK threatens to siphon off disgruntled Tory voters, then "appeal to the center" to widen the party's appeal. But he cautioned against assuming adopting Reform UK's agenda wholesale will lure those supporters back.
Still, he predicted the next Tory leader will likely stick to a "pro-Brexit platform" centered on "strong borders on immigration." And he warned against overinterpreting voters' current indifference to the Conservatives' internal upheaval.
"It's quite normal for electorates just to move on, and they will get more interested in what the Tory party is saying once the government's honeymoon has ended and when, midterm, there'll be difficulties the government faces," Kwarteng said. "And I think oppositions become much more relevant."
Will Kwarteng himself rejoin that opposition? "I'm not in Parliament, and I enjoyed being an MP, but that comes with its own stresses," he mused. "I wouldn't rule it out. I don't think you should ever rule out –"
He trailed off, leaving the door open to a possible political return. For now, Kwarteng appears at ease embracing the commentator role, trying to influence the fight over the Tories' identity from the outside.
"I'm always interested, as you are given what you do, in not only British politics but global politics," he said. And with a parting swipe at his party's current disarray, he added with a laugh, "And I can assure you, being a commentator is a lot easier than being an MP."
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